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-TIPS

February has come. Football has ended. At last, the original fantasy sport has arrived — and it’s time now to start jotting down notes for your baseball draft:

Note #1: Don’t count on Curt Schilling. He’s last year’s version of Pedro Martinez.
Note #2: Be wary of Kelvim Escobar. The phrase “experiencing discomfort in shoulder” is never a good sign.

It’s sad to see Schilling fall prey to injury issues. I’ve always been one of those fantasy owners who just loves having Schilling on their teams. After all, he was a “warrior” long before the “bloody sock” performance took place. Who can forget those 300 K years back in Philly… or the horde of 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 7 K lines he would provide year in and year out? Supposedly Schilling’s biceps looks like “three strands of spaghetti” and he’s experiencing pain even when doing simple tasks like shaking hands or opening doors.

The Red Sox are reportedly adamant that Schilling avoid surgery, and instead, take the route of cortisone shots and rehabilitation. Surgery or no surgery, it looks like Schilling will be out until the All-Star break at the very least… and I’m not going to be one of those owners holding their breath for Schilling to help their fantasy teams in ‘08. Last year, there were plenty of owners who wasted draft picks on the almighty Pedro — wishfully hoping he would make an early return from shoulder surgery and anchor their pitching staffs. Of course, Pedro didn’t make his season debut until September 3rd and went on to pitch a whopping 28 innings in ‘07.

Escobar on the other hand is a different story. Despite his potential, I’ve never been a huge fan given his relatively long history of injuries. Before news broke that he wouldn’t be ready for the season opener, Escobar was most likely going to be overvalued in drafts due to last year’s career year. Projection systems like CHONE and ZiPS currently project Escobar to have 175 IP and 197 IP, respectively. But with his sore shoulder already becoming a problem, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Escobar finish with 160 IP or less.

THE ELITE

1. Hanley Ramirez: Magic/Bird? Bird/Magic? That of course was the great debate of the 80's. A quarter-century later, there's another debate brewing­­ — at least in the minds of fantasy baseball fans. HanRam/Reyes? Reyes/HanRam? In 2007, Ramirez outperformed the first-rounder Reyes despite being projected as second-round or third-round material. This year, fans seem to have learned their lesson as evidenced by the 2008 mock drafts we've come across. After A-Rod, HanRam and Reyes are going neck and neck, with each of them taking turns being drafted second and third overall. Can Hanley build upon the surge in power that propelled him ahead of Reyes in 2007?

A quick look at the numbers reveals the difference between the two stars. In 2006, their home run-per-flyball rate (HR/FB) and contact numbers were remarkably similar. Reyes had 19 HR and a 10.6% HR/FB rate in his second full season — with a line drive percentage (LD%) of 20.9 percent, a ground ball percentage (GB%) of 45.2 percent, and a flyball percentage (FB%) of 33.9 percent; while Ramirez had 17 HR and a 10.2% HR/FB rate as a rookie — with splits of 20.9% LD, 43.8% GB, and 35.3% FB. In 2007, their LD percentages dipped but their FB percentages rose precipitously — the difference being that HanRam exchanged his line drives for homers (13.2% HR/FB rate) while Reyes frequented the warning track at best (5.5% HR/FB rate). While Ramirez owners may see a decline in runs scored total due to Miguel Cabrera's departure, the sky seems to be the limit for this true five-category stud. So who's better? As far as fans can tell, the debate over this pair of 24-year-old electrifying shortstops is just getting started.
TIPS Projection: 106 Runs / 26 HR / 74 RBI / 55 SB / .315 AVG in 606 AB

2. Jose Reyes: We've mentioned this before, but do people realize that Reyes had nearly 30 more stolen bases than HanRam, Carl Crawford, Eric Byrnes and Dave Roberts — and nearly 40 more steals than Jimmy Rollins and Chone Figgins? Those additional swipes are what makes savvy fantasy fans drool because they know 30 SB means significantly more than just 30 SB. Reyes gives owners the freedom during draft day to aim for 20/100 guys like Raul Ibanez or Jose Guillen as their third outfielder rather than being forced to plug that slot with one-dimensional speedsters like Willy Taveras or Roberts. With his improved BB/K rate, the hamstring issue a thing of the past, and the Mets offense looking mighty strong once again, Reyes appears awfully safe as a top-five pick. In fact, those owners who abide by the notion that "steals are more valuable than power" have a legitimate argument for drafting Reyes ahead of HanRam.
TIPS Projection: 115 Runs / 14 HR / 61 RBI / 70 SB / .286 AVG in 654 AB

3. Jimmy Rollins: Magic/Bird? Bird/Magic? But wait, hold on — what about Dr. J? In 2007, Rollins followed up his '06 power surge in true Julius-fashion: having an eye-popping, attention-grabbing 30/30 season and becoming the fourth player in MLB history to collect 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers and 20 steals. With all the hype surrounding Ramirez and Reyes, Rollins stole the spotlight by winning the NL MVP and proving his '06 power was no fluke. But lost in the midst of his recent success is a peculiar first and second half trend. Take a look at his Pre-All Star and Post-All Star splits over the last four years:

Over the past four seasons, Rollins’ post-break batting average (.306) is a full 34 points higher than his first-half mark while his OPS (.883) is nearly a 130 points higher. In 2007, the gap was closer (.022 in BA and .062 in OPS) primarily because Rollins delivered his best first-half numbers of his career. If you stumble upon a disgruntled Rollins owner come June — wheel and deal like there’s no tomorrow.

TIPS Projection: 127 Runs / 28 HR / 86 RBI / 36 SB / .290 AVG in 686 AB

THE REST

4. Carlos Guillen: Remember Michael Cuddyer’s 109 RBI in '06 batting behind AL batting champ Joe Mauer and AL MVP Justin Morneau? Guillen owners have gotta be thrilled about their SS-eligible Tiger playing a less demanding position and batting behind scrubs like Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield.
TIPS Projection: 91 Runs / 24 HR / 103 RBI / 10 SB / .312 AVG

5. Troy Tulowitzki: Should no longer alternate between batting second and seventh. Supposedly will do more running with Kaz Matsui gone. Love '07 splits batting ahead of Matt Holliday: 59 R/ 14 HR/ 57 RBI/ .297 BA/ ,366 OBP/ .517 SLG in 290 AB.
TIPS Projection: 113 Runs / 26 HR / 89 RBI / 9 SB / .285 AVG

6. Rafael Furcal: 12 stolen bases in 15 games last September shows what he's capable of without ankle issues. Should rebound in '08 at a possible bargain price.
TIPS Projection: 113 Runs / 11 HR / 54 RBI / 37 SB / .281 AVG in 626 AB

7. Derek Jeter: Will be overpaid for and drafted like a top-five SS — but at age 33, is he really that much better than Michael Young? 2007 HR/FB rate was lowest in years.
TIPS Projection: 105 Runs / 13 HR / 73 RBI / 14 SB / .309 AVG in 620 AB

8. Michael Young: Generally, if hitter's LD% + .120 is less than BABIP, hitter will eventually regress into a slump — no need to worry about Jeter-Lite with that 27.2 LD%.
TIPS Projection: 87 Runs / 11 HR / 93 RBI / 14 SB / .312 AVG in 641 AB

9. Miguel Tejada: Like the consistently high contact rate (~89%) and newfound lineup protection; dislike the cloud of performance enhancing legal questions and downward trend in power.
TIPS Projection: 87 Runs / 20 HR / 82 RBI / 3 SB / .303 AVG in 576 AB

10. J.J. Hardy: 2007 first-half HR binge may have been Chris Shelton-like, but second-half numbers projected to an 18 homer season — that combined with a 90.6% contact rate sounds promising.
TIPS Projection: 93 Runs / 18 HR / 72 RBI / 2 SB / .281 AVG in 590 AB

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