A Year in Review: Grading the 2007 First Round Mock Draft Picks

In case you've forgotten, here’s a look back at how first rounds shaped up in 12-team Yahoo and ESPN drafts last spring in 2007:



General ESPN-User (Avg. Pick) Yahoo-User (Avg. Pick)
1
Albert Pujols Albert Pujols (1.1) Albert Pujols (2.1)
2
Jose Reyes Alfonso Soriano (2.5) Jose Reyes (4.4)
3
Alfonso Soriano Alex Rodriguez (4.4) Johan Santana (4.9)
4
Johan Santana Jose Reyes (4.4) Alfonso Soriano (5.0)
5
Alex Rodriguez Johan Santana (4.7) Alex Rodriguez (5.7)
6
Ryan Howard Ryan Howard (5.4) Ryan Howard (6.6)
7
Chase Utley Chase Utley (7.3) Chase Utley (9.6)
8
Carl Crawford Vladimir Guerrero (9.6) Carlos Beltran (9.8)
9
David Ortiz Carl Crawford (9.6) David Ortiz (10.0)
10
Carlos Beltran David Wright (10.4) Miguel Cabrera (11.8)
11
Vladimir Guerrero David Ortiz (11.0) Carl Crawford (12.0)
12
Cabrera/Wright Carlos Beltran (12.5) David Wright (13.2)


Congratulations to those owners who knew to take A-Rod with their first-round pick and Hanley Ramirez in the following round. On the flip side, fans across the nation can sympathize with owners who fell in love with their one-two, Soriano-Hafner combination... how's that Prozac helping? In all seriousness, many owners were let down and disappointed with the production they got out of their first round pick. Here’s a quick recap of last year's first-rounders, with value ratings provided next to each player and categorized as Poor Value, Fair Value, Solid Value or Great Value:

1.
Pujols- Poor Value: Sure, I'd happily take him on one of my fantasy teams any day, but the truth of the matter is that the universally acknowledged #1 player chosen in 2007 drafts had a down year. After treating owners to four straight years of monster numbers across the board, Mr. Pujols dipped under 1.000 OPS for the first time since 2002, posting career lows in runs, homers, and RBI.

2.
Reyes- Fair Value: Despite his miserable September in which he “only” had 5 SB, Reyes had a total of 78 SB for the year—the most since Marquis Grissom in 1992. Do people realize that Reyes had nearly 30 more SB than HanRam and Crawford, and nearly 40 more SB than Rollins and Figgins? The fact that millions of fantasy fans didn’t even have the luxury of rostering a player with more than half his SB makes one realize just how special Reyes can be. Even though his power numbers were down from 2006, Reyes gave owners flexibility from having to roster those speedy, one-category outfielders .

3.
Soriano- Poor Value: Who would’ve thought that a fairly healthy Soriano would fail to finish in the top 40 in the SB department? To put it simply, 2006 numbers: 46 HR/ 41 SB; 2007 numbers: 33 HR/ 19 SB. Those experts predicting a let-down year for Soriano were dead on.

4.
Johan- Poor Value: Of his four full seasons, this was by far Johan’s worst. Superman just didn’t seem to have that consistent dominance we've all been accustomed to seeing. Sure, he had fine stats compared to the rest of the league—who can argue with a 1.07 WHIP and 235 K? But owners who drafted Santana were surprised to see stats next to his name like 13 Losses and 33 HR Allowed (behind only Livan Hernandez and Woody Williams). Santana had the “Peyton Manning Pass” going on in fantasy circles and was universally accepted as a first round pick despite his position, yet he disappointed owners with his highest ERA and BAA since 2001 and lowest win total since 2003.

5.
A-Rod- [Insert comment and make Tony the Tiger proud]

6.
Howard- Solid Value: The two yellow flags against Howard going into the season were (A) "There's no way he repeats last year's numbers. Pitchers know better and aren't going to pitch to him" and (B) "first base is so deep. There's no reason to take a first baseman so high." While Howard's numbers were indeed down from his 2006 totals, he still finished third overall in homers (47) and fourth in RBI (136) despite missing most of May. Howard owners were more than content with those numbers considering it was an overall down year for first base-eligible guys (notably, Ortiz, Berkman, D.Lee, Thome, and Hafner).

7.
Utley- Solid Value: Owners paid for the best second baseman out there and with the exception of a month-long freak injury, Utley delivered all season. Before the broken hand incident occurred in late July, Utley was on pace for a MLB record 70 doubles and a personal best 105 RBI. Get this: In his return from the DL, Utley picked up right where he left off and went 3-for-5 with a homer and a double. His final line of .332/.410/.566 were career highs.

8.
Crawford- Poor Value: Don't get me wrong, Crawford is an excellent player and he didn’t have a horrible season, but when you could’ve had HanRam’s 50 SB and shortstop eligibility a round or two later, or Byrnes’ 50 SB fifteen to twenty rounds later, you cringe. While Crawford once again set career highs in BA and OBP, he disappointed those owners expecting a jump to the 20+ HR range.

9.
David Ortiz- Solid Value: Up until his monster September, Big Papi would have fallen into the Poor Value category. It wasn’t that his numbers were terrible, it was just hard not to make a big deal about his drop in HR’s. Ortiz’s problems with the left shoulder and the torn meniscus in his right knee were the primary reasons why 2006's HR total (54) dropped nearly twenty, but few people give Ortiz credit for setting career highs in doubles (52), BA (.332) and OBP (.445). Like Pujols, it’s hard to believe that a line of .332/116/35/117 can be considered a down year; the difference though is that Ortiz was drafted eight spots later.

10.
Carlos Beltran- Fair Value: As long as you didn't draft Beltran third overall like you may have done a couple years ago, you Beltran owners did fine. While his OPS was down more than a 100 points, his average stayed the same and he ended up with another year of 30+ HR (33) and 20+ SB (23). A 30/20 player with solid all-around numbers is exactly what owners will take from a late first round pick.

11.
Vladimir Guerrero- Fair Value: Mr. "Who needs batting gloves" won the Home Run Derby but then did nothing to dispel the myth of the Derby Jinx by continuing his longest homerless streak of his career (30-games). Though Vlad failed to reach 30 HR during a full season for the first time in his career, he was steady and productive throughout the year... with a plus .400 OBP, a positive BB/K ratio, and his third highest RBI total of his career. One glaring number, however, was Vlad's lack of SB. Long gone are the days of 40 SB, but after averaging 15 SB the last few years, he disappointed 2007 owners with only two.

12.
Miguel Cabrera - Solid Value/ David Wright - Great Value: You couldn't have gone wrong by drafting either one of these young 3rd basemen. Miggy eclipsed his career high in HR’s (34) and pulled his weight with his usual elite-territory percentages of .320/.401/.565. Meanwhile, only three players had more than 30 HR and 30 SB and one of those players is making a legitimate argument for being the best 3rd baseman in NY. In just his third full season, David Wright has essentially become an annual 30/30 candidate who'll get you 100 runs, 100 walks, 200 hits, and a high BA and OBP. Yes, Brandon Phillips and Jimmy Rollins had amazing 30/30 seasons, but Wright was a Sabermetrician's dream- as he set career highs in runs (113), hits (196), homers (30), walks (94), SB (34), BA (.325), OBP (.416) and SLG (.546). So here’s the big question: Who will be better in two years… A-Rod or Wright?

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